August 2023 Survey Results at a Glance:

• After four straight months of above growth neutral readings, the Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) slumped to growth neutral, 50.0, in August. 
• Farmland cash rents are expected to expand by 1.3% over the next year.
• Less than one-third of bank CEOs expect a “soft landing” for the economy. Approximately one-third anticipate a “hard landing,” or negative growth from Federal Reserve rate hikes.
• Bankers reported continuing record low deposits.
• Only 14.8% expect a stronger farm economy one year out. Almost one-half, or 48.2%, forecast a weaker farm economy 12 months out.
• The region’s agriculture exports contracted from $8 billion in the first half of 2022 to $6.8 billion for the same period in 2023 for a 14.6% slump.

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July 2023 Survey Results at a Glance:

• July’s overall reading, the Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI), rose above growth neutral for a fourth straight month.
• Farmland prices expanded for the 34th straight month.
• On average, non-farm investors secured approximately 17.1% of farmland sales in the region, up from 9.1% reported by bankers in April 2022.
• More than nine of ten, or 92.5%, indicated that the Fed should cease raising rates.
• More than three-fourths of bankers expect that Secretary Yellen’s policy encouraging bank mergers and acquisition would damage community banks and farmers.

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June 2023 Survey Results at a Glance:

• June’s overall reading, the Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI), rose above growth neutral for the month to its highest level since May 2022.
• Bank CEOs ranked Federal Reserve rate hikes as the greatest challenge in the 12 months ahead with rising bank regulations a distant second.
• More than half of bankers reported that higher interest rates were impairing farm equipment purchases.
• Farm equipment sales declined for only the third time in the past 31 months.
• On average, bankers expect farm loan defaults to expand less than 1% over the next 12 months.
• The region exported $13.3 billion of agriculture and livestock in 2022. This represented 26.5% growth from the previous year. Mexico was the chief destination, accounting for 55.2% of the region’s farm exports.

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OMAHA, Neb. (June 15, 2023) -- After declining below growth neutral for March, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index for June expanded above the threshold for a third straight month to its highest level since May 2022, according to the June monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.
 
Overall: The region’s overall reading in June climbed to 56.9, the highest reading since May 2022 and up from last month’s 55.8. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.
 
“After negative growth during the first quarter of this year, the Rural Mainstreet economy experienced positive, but slow, economic growth for all of the second quarter. Only 3.4% of bankers reported a downturn in economic conditions for the month,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.
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