Community Banking News Blog | Community Bankers of Iowa (CBI)

Rural Mainstreet Index Soars to Record High: 90% of Bankers Report Labor Shortages Restraining Growth

5/24/2021

May Survey Results at a Glance:

Overall index rocketed to a record high.
Approximately, 60.6% of bank CEOs reported that their local economy expanded between April and May.
Almost nine of 10 bank CEOs indicated that hiring at their bank and in the area was restraining growth.
For the first time since 2013, the regional farmland prices expanded for eight straight months.
On average, bankers reported annual cash rent per acre of $228, which represented growth of 7.3% over the past 12 months.

OMAHA, Neb. (May 20, 2021) – For the sixth straight month, the Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed above growth neutral. According to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Overall: The overall index for May jumped to a record high of 78.8 from April’s very healthy 69.0. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

Approximately, 60.6% of bank CEOs reported that their local economy expanded between April and May.

Iowa Legislature Update: Week Ending May 13, 2021

5/14/2021

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Iowa lawmakers inch toward adjournment
Legislative leaders worked mostly behind the scenes this week crafting a massive tax relief package, setting the stage for adjourning the 2021 session potentially as early as next week.

House and Senate GOP leaders have been at odds over their must-do items on tax policy. The latest Senate bill, SF619, is a sweeping proposal that includes many of the priorities leaders from both chambers have wanted to include in tax reform this year. Among the bill’s chief provisions:

Fully implementing income tax cuts passed in 2018 in SF2417, which reduces rates and the number of tax brackets.
The tax changes were set to go into effect only if revenue targets were met.
Eliminating what is known as “federal deductibility,” which allows taxpayers to deduct what they pay in federal taxes from their Iowa tax bill
Shifting mental health services funding from local property taxes to the state
Expanding the childcare tax credit to apply to taxpayers making up to $90,000. Currently, only those making up to $45,000 qualify for the credit.
Phases out the inheritance tax over three years, with a full repeal in 2024
Requires health insurers to pay providers the same rate for telehealth mental health services as they pay for an in-person visit
Creates an Energy Infrastructure Revolving Loan Program to develop energy infrastructure.

Iowa Legislature Update: Week Ending April 29, 2021

4/30/2021

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Census results show Iowa keeping all four congressional seats
Iowa will retain all four of its seats in the U.S. House after preliminary data from the 2020 Census show Iowa with modest population growth of 3.6 %.

As more detailed Census data is released, Iowa lawmakers will be required to vote on new congressional and legislative districts that become effective for the 2022 election. Iowa has an often-praised, nonpartisan process for drawing new political maps. Most of the work is left to computers, which will draw new district lines to create 50 Iowa Senate and 100 Iowa House seats, along with four districts for U.S. Congress.

The Des Moines and Iowa City metro areas had the fastest growth in population and are expected to gain new legislative seats, while most rural parts of the state continue to lose residents.

Rural Mainstreet on Strong Growth Path: Farmland Prices Expanding Rapidly

4/19/2021

April Survey Results at a Glance:

Overall index dipped but remained in strong growth territory from March’s record high.
The farmland price index advanced its highest level since November 2012.
The farm equipment-sales index rose to its highest reading since February 2013.
Housing index soars to record level with bids above listing prices.
Lack of available workers is restraining job growth.
Approximately 9.1% of farmland sales over past six months have gone to nonfarmer investors.
Fully 100% of bank CEOs indicated that export markets were important, or very important, to their local economy.

OMAHA, Neb. (April 15, 2021) – For the fifth straight month, the Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed above growth neutral. According to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Overall: The overall index for April slipped to a still healthy 69.0 from a record high 71.9 in March. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral. Approximately, 37.9% of bank CEOs reported that their local economy expanded between March and April.

Iowa Legislature Update: Week Ending April 8, 2021

4/9/2021

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Iowa House, Senate tax debate heats up
With just weeks to go in the legislative session, the Iowa House and Senate are advancing competing tax relief proposals, a difference that could complicate plans for adjournment this year.

SF576, which passed the Senate 46-0, phases in the elimination of the inheritance tax. The state’s nonpartisan Legislative Services Agency predicts the repeal would reduce revenue by nearly $18 million in FY2022. The legislation would apply to deaths occurring on or after Jan. 1, 2021.

The bill also would remove “triggers” put in place in order for broad state income tax cuts passed in 2018 to go into effect. Those triggers ensure the state’s tax collections rise enough to offset tax cuts.

If the triggers are removed, the LSA predicts the tax cuts would reduce income tax liability by roughly $297 million in FY2023.

The House also has a bill eliminating the inheritance tax, HF841. It’s unclear at this point what a final tax package will look like before lawmakers adjourn for the year in the coming weeks. House Speaker Pat Grassley has made public statements that the House will take a cautious approach to removing the triggers.

Rural Mainstreet Index Rockets to Record High: More Than Two-Thirds of Bankers Reported Expanding Local Economy

3/23/2021

March Survey Results at a Glance:

Overall index rocketed to a record high for the month.
Approximately, 68.8% of bank CEOs reported an expanding local economy, while the remaining 31.2% indicated little or no growth.
The farmland price index advanced its highest level since November 2012.
The farm equipment-sales index rose to its highest reading since February 2013.
Approximately 82.8% of bank CEOs recommended that the Federal Reserve raise interest rates by at least one-fourth of one percentage point in the next 12 months.
Despite recent job gains, the region’s nonfarm employment level remains 218,600 jobs below its pre-COVID-19 level.

For the fifth time in the past six months, the Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed above growth neutral. According to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, the index increased to its highest level since launching the survey in January 2006.

Overall: The overall index for March soared to a record high 71.9 from February’s solid 53.8. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

Approximately, 68.8% of bank CEOs reported that their local economy was expanding, while the remaining 31.2% indicated little or no growth.

“Sharp gains in grain prices, federal farm support, and the Federal Reserve’s record-low interest rates have underpinned the Rural Mainstreet Economy. Only 3.1% of bank CEOs indicated economic conditions worsened from the previous month. Even so, current rural economic activity remains below pre-pandemic levels,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Iowa Legislature Update: Week Ending March 18, 2021

3/19/2021

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Iowa Senate passes bill eliminating inheritance tax, phasing income tax cuts in sooner
The Iowa Senate has unanimously passed legislation to scrap the state's inheritance tax and to phase in planned income tax cuts more quickly, advancing one of Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds' key legislative priorities. The bill, Senate File 576, passed the chamber Wednesday on a 46-0 vote, with four senators absent. It now goes to the Iowa House for consideration. Read more: Des Moines Register

Call for Support of Central Filing System Legislation
The Senate version of legislation to create a central filing system relating to security interests in farm products was previously approved in Senate State Government Committee and is now SF 486. This bill has now been referred to the Senate Ways and Means Committee since it contains a fee for filings, which makes it eligible for action until the end of the session. CBI supports this legislation, and urges members to contact their Senator and ask them to support SF 486.

Rural Mainstreet Economy Expands Again: Economic Outlook Soars to Highest Level since 2011

2/22/2021

February Survey Results at a Glance:

Overall index rose to its highest reading since January 2020.
Business and economic outlook soared to its highest level since March 2011.
Bank CEOs estimated 2021 cash land rent for non-irrigated, non-pastureland at $218.
Rural Mainstreet retail sales remain very weak.
The February farmland price index climbed to its highest level since May 2013.
Bankers expect farm equipment sales to expand by 3.8% over the next 12 months.

OMAHA, Neb. (Feb. 18, 2021) – For the fourth time in the past five months, the Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed above growth neutral. According to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, the index increased to its highest level since January 2020.

Overall: The overall index for February rose to 53.8 from January’s 52.0. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Sharp gains in grain prices, federal farm support, and the Federal Reserve’s record-low interest rates have underpinned the Rural Mainstreet Economy. Only 8% of bank CEOs indicated economic conditions worsened from the previous month. Even so, current rural economic activity remains below pre-pandemic levels,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Rural Mainstreet Economy Stabilizes in Growth Range: Concerns Over Loan Defaults Drops Significantly

2/1/2021

January Survey Results at a Glance:

Overall index rose to its second highest reading since before COVID-19.
Bankers biggest economic concerns for 2021 are excessive inflation and higher long-term interest rates.
For the first time since 2013, Creighton’s survey has recorded four straight months of above growth-neutral farmland prices.
Farm equipment-sales index rose to its highest reading since April 2013.
Approximately 44% of bank CEOs expect low loan demand to be the greatest issue facing their banks for 2021, up from 7% last year at this time.
Only 4% of bankers indicated that rising loan defaults and bankruptcies represented their greatest concern for 2021, down significantly from the 32% in 2020 survey.

OMAHA, Neb. (Jan. 21, 2021) – For the third time in the past four months, the Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed above growth neutral. According to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, the index increased to its second highest level since January 2020.

Overall: The overall index for January rose to 52.0 from December’s 51.6. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Recent sharp improvements in agriculture commodity prices, federal farm support payments, and Federal Reserve’s record low short-term interest rates have underpinned the Rural Mainstreet Economy in a solid and positive growth range. However, the rural economy remains well below pre-pandemic levels,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Rural Mainstreet Farmland Prices Show Strongest Growth Since 2013: Farm Equipment Sales Highest Since June 2013

1/4/2021

December Survey Results at a Glance:

Overall index rose to its second highest reading in the past 10 months.
For the first time since June 2013, the farm equipment-sales index rose above growth neutral.
For the first time since 2013, the farmland price index rose above growth neutral for three straight months.
Bankers ranked water availability as the top 2021 farm economy issue; farm labor cost/availability was ranked as the second biggest issue or concern.
Among 10 farm concerns for 2021, farm income and farm liquidity were the two issues of least concern. Growth in agriculture income pulled farmer borrowing down for a second straight month.

OMAHA, Neb. (Dec. 17, 2020) – For the second time in the past three months, the Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed above growth neutral. According to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, the index increased to its second highest level in the past 10 months.

Overall: The overall index for December rose to 51.6 from November’s 46.8, but was down from October’s 53.2. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Recent improvements in agriculture commodity prices, federal farm support payments, and the Federal Reserve’s record low interest rates have underpinned the Rural Mainstreet Economy,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.